While the town is getting used to projecting Warner Bros.’ day-and-date theatrical and streaming numbers, Disney’s throwing a bit of a curveball: Remember, many box office analysts didn’t see the Friday-to-Saturday 41% collapse of Black Widow coming.
Warner’s theatrical titles in the home are free to HBO Max subscribers, whereas Disney+ subs have to pay an extra $29.99 to see Jungle Cruise. To date in the pandemic, we’ve had a greater number of Warner Bros/HBO Max movies vs. Disney/Disney+ Premier titles. In revised afternoon estimates, we hear the projection for the Dwayne Johnson-Emily Blunt pairing stands between $12M-$13M today, which could near a $30M 3-day at 4,310 theaters, the pandemic’s widest opening title to date. That Friday figure includes last night’s $2.7M. Again, take these numbers with a grain of salt.
Comparing to another Disney family film that’s on a dynamic window, Jungle Cruise‘s Friday is ahead of Cruella‘s first day of $7.7M. That movie over three days of a four-day holiday weekend wound up at $21.5M. Should Jungle Cruise‘s Friday remain high, it will also best the first day for a Johnson pic since 2018’s Skyscraper ($9.2M), which went on to do $24.9M — that’s without any competition from a home release.
A24 is looking to take No. 2 with its David Lowery fantasy The Green Knight headed toward an estimated $2.5M-$3M Friday, including $750K previews. At 2,790 venues, the pic could do between $6.5M-$8M.
Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan-directed genre pic Old is seeing a $1.9M Friday (-72%), $6M second weekend, -64%, for a 10-day of $29.8M in the No. 3 spot.
Disney’s fourth weekend of Black Widow is seeing around $6.1M, -47%, after a $1.8M Friday (-48%) on its way to $166.7M for No. 4.
Focus Features’ Tom McCarthy-directed drama Stillwatere is looking at $1.4M at 2,531 for a 3-day of $3.5M, further down the charts.
Friday AM update: Disney is reporting $2.7M for its Dwayne Johnson-Emily Blunt family adventure movie Jungle Cruise from shows that began at 7PM. The film, which was delayed due to the pandemic, is also hitting Disney+ Premier at $29.99 today. In the wake of Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit against Disney for breach of contract on its failure to deliver an exclusive wide theatrical release on Black Widow, I hear that the Dwayne Johnson and his Seven Bucks camp have no intention of battling Disney for any anticipated loss of dollars on this day-and-date release on the Jaume Collet-Serra-directed movie; the action star’s camp was in lock-step with the Mouse House when the announcement was made to deliver the pic to a global audience everywhere at a time when certain offshore theatrical markets (like Southeast Asia) are offline due to Covid.
Jungle Cruise is looking to do $25M this weekend, with another $40M from international territories for $65M WW at the box office.
In regards to pandemic box office numbers, and in particular Disney+ Premier-box office releases, Jungle Cruise bested the Thursday night of Cruella which did $1.4M. Note these latest experiments by Disney have roughly an exclusive Thursday night window before they hit the streaming service at midnight Friday.
Jungle Cruise‘s Thursday night is ahead of Johnson’s 2018 Skyscraper which wasn’t a high for him at the B.O.; that pic doing a $1.95M in previews at 2,950 theaters off 7PM showtimes before posting a $9.2M Friday, $24.9M 3-day. The pic finaled at $68.4M in U.S./Canada. Jungle Cruise is also ahead of Rock’s New Line/Warner Bros’ Rampage which made $2.4M on its first Thursday. That translated into a pre-pandemic 2018 Friday of $11.5M, and a $35.7M 3-day.
Disney is expected to report first weekend global PVOD numbers on Jungle Cruise on Sunday AM. Black Widow‘s first weekend on Disney+ Premier was $60M. Add in $158M WW theatrical debut, and the first weekend global B.O. and Disney PVOD take on that film was $218M. Samba TV, which only clocks terrestrial Smart TV households in streaming viewership, reported a 10-day U.S. household viewership of Black Widow of 2M which translates into a PVOD gross revenue over that frame of $59.98M stateside. To date, at the domestic B.O., the Johansson MCU movie counts $160.6M.
A24’s Dev Patel fantasy movie Green Knight came up strong with $750K at 2,790 theaters. The NY-based indie distrib’s previous preview highs include Ari Aster’s Midsommar (which started on a Tuesday) with $1.1M and the filmmaker’s Hereditary which did a $1.3M Thursday. Green Knight has the best reviews of the weekend for a wide entry at 91% fresh. Jungle Cruise is down to 63% fresh. Green Knight was previously reported to do around $4M this weekend.
Focus Features’ Stillwater also held previews at 7PM yesterday making only $280K from 1,970 locations. The Matt Damon drama, which made it world premiere at Cannes, is at 70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The movie is expected to do around $5M this weekend at 2,531 locations.
Universal’s Old was the No. 1 film throughout the week with a 7-day estimate of $23.9M at 3,355 theaters. The No. 2 movie? Black Widow in its third week, which did $17.44M at 4,250.
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