A Flood Watch is in effect for the Piedmont Triad on Saturday afternoon through 8 p.m. on Sunday. National Weather Service meteorologists may add more counties to the Flood Watch as conditions warrant.
A surge of moisture from the Gulf and a steady flow of Atlantic moisture from the North Carolina coast will bring a risk for heavy rainfall during the day Saturday into Sunday.
Saturday through Monday are Impact Days as weather is expected to affect all or part of your day with showers and thunderstorms. Please plan to check weather alerts before traveling this weekend.
Flooding of creeks and streams as well as flash flooding on Triad roads may develop Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
Please heed flood warnings and never attempt to drive on flooded roads.
Intense moisture transport from the south is likely with an upper level low pressure system in the right position over the Southeast, a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, and a surface warm front lifting north toward Virginia by Sunday. Convergence and small storms higher overhead that we refer to as shortwaves, will enhance rainfall chances and may bring torrential downpours. Those shortwaves are upper level fronts that encourage warm rising air at the surface to lift more efficiently.
TIMING
- Overnight into Saturday morning: Light rainfall develops with some moderate showers possible through the middle of the morning Saturday.
- Midday Saturday: Periods of light rain and mist develop into steady showers with heavy rainfall developing into the evening hours. Brief breaks in the rain are possible, but rain is expected to intensify into the afternoon.
- Late Saturday evening-overnight: Rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to bring rounds of torrential downpours through Sunday morning. Excessive runoff into creeks and streams may cause sharp water level rises leading to low-lying flooding.
- Sunday morning-noon Sunday: Waves of heavy rainfall may begin to pivot North as the warm front begins lifting toward Virginia. Rain breaks are expected midday Sunday with some cloud thinning.
- Sunday afternoon-evening: Scattered thunderstorms are likely with heavy rainfall threats returning where storms may move overhead from the High Country to the Foothills, and into the Piedmont Triad.
RAINFALL TOTALS
- Mountains: Areas along the Blue Ridge Parkway may receive 1-3 inch rainfall totals through Sunday evening.
- Foothills: Rain in the Foothills from Yadkinville to Mount Airy may bring 1-2 inch totals.
- Piedmont Triad: Torrential downpours and several waves of heavy rain may bring isolated totals of 3-5 inches
ANY RAIN BREAKS?
- Saturday: Overcast skies are more likely the entire day due to a wedge of milder, cloudy air developing with an ENE breeze from our beaches. This may linger for part of the day on Sunday until the warm front lifts north. There may be breaks from the heavy rainfall on Saturday, but steady showers and mist are likely.
- Sunday: Depending on when the warm front rides north on Sunday, we will have breaks from the rain and may also see the sunshine return as clouds thin in response to a southerly wind pattern. The warm front is currently forecast to move north quickly on Sunday with scattered storm chances returning Sunday afternoon until early evening.
WHERE to MONITOR RIVER LEVELS and RAINFALL TOTALS
The National Weather Service offers a quick view of area streams, creeks, and river rises on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service link for North Carolina and Virginia. Once you click on the link below, choose a point on the map that is close to your location to monitor local water levels:
LocalNCVARiverLevels
The North Carolina State Climate Office also has a suite of products available to residents interested in finding out nearby temperatures and rainfall totals. Click on the link below to explore your location or other cities in North Carolina:
NCStateClimateOfficeWeatherStationScout
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